The Christchurch Quake Conspiracy (plural) – Part Six – Astrology

Written in the stars

Is a natural disaster natural if it was caused by the stars or the Moon? Probably, although most geologists and meteorologists would be surprised to hear that such distant bodies were causal factors in such essentially seismic activity. The astrological explanations for the Christchurch Earthquake of September the 4th are not conspiracy theories per se, but they are interestingly related to them, given that the assertion of these rival explanations being not just plausible candidate explanatory hypotheses for the quake but being the explanation is usually accompanied with some claim that the reason why this isn’t commonly known is because mainstream science is run by a rich elite who do not want is to know…

Over at Darkstar Astrology, earthquakes are considered to have a clear astrological origin or contributory cause.

[W]e have looked at charts for major earthquakes in relation to the aspects involving trans-Neptunian planets, especially Sedna and Eris.

and:

Sedna again looks to be important in this Christchurch earthquake. It is the action point of a Yod aspect pattern to Mars sextile Ceres.

Now, most sceptics, and most members of the public, will not be aware that earthquakes, tsunamis and the like have astrological causes, mostly because we learnt, during the Enlightenment, that such theories are bunk. Still, the modern astrologer will claim that even if the ancients were wrong (although surely they can’t have been?), new science has proven that their intuitions were basically correct. They will point towards new theories1, or Quantum Physics (citing spooky action at a distance), or to the work of Richard Hoagland on hyperdimensional physics2.

Whatever the case, according to another of my Te Wai Pounamu-based correspondents (with her wry face set firmly to on, the astrologists claim the aftershocks should stop in first week of October. A testable prediction; I would be more impressed by the claim, if it weren’t both likely and already predicted by the rival, geological theory for seismic activity.

Meanwhile Ken Ring, astrologer and someone who claims he can predict the weather based upon the phases of the Moon, claims here that he predicted the earthquake of September 4th. Ring is an astrologer who thinks the Moon is the bee’s knees when it comes to weather prediction. Like the more traditional astrologers, he’s not really advancing a conspiracy theory about some sinister sect that induced the quake (although he does suggest that mainstream science, by deliberately downplaying good old accurate Astrology, is somehow at fault for the quake3.

Gone are the days when all scientists were astrologers first and foremost, and when Sir Isaac Newton described astrology as the first science. Subsequently also gone are the times when science could predict anything useful.

Yes, pity poor modern science. It might be able to get objects to land on Mars and skirt close enough to the outer planets to take spectacular photos, but it’s no match for the predictive majesty of the daily horoscope.

Sarcasm aside, Ring bases his weather predictions on the phases of the Moon, which allows him to create a rather ornate pseudoscience with claims like:

A fortnight beforehand the full moon was passing over close to the equator, which would have provided enough of a tidal force to lift that plate, in other words weaken it, and then a fortnight later when the moon was high in the N hem and just rising, it would have provided the lateral force required to trigger the rest. The unusual closeness of the moon is the key.

and:

And here’s how the big earthquake unfolded. On Sept 4th the moon came significantly within range of the node at 3.37am (5deg of applying), about an hour before the earthquake occurred at 4.30am. In a manner of speaking it gave the moon an hour to take aim.

Here’s Ring’s prediction for the next big quake in March next year:

Next year, the morning of 20 March 2011 sees the South island again in a big earthquake risk for all the same reasons. This date is the closest fly-past the moon does in all of 2011. The node arrives on the 20th at 9.44am. As that date coincides with lunar equinox this will probably be an east/west faultline event this time, and therefore should be more confined to a narrower band of latitude. The only east/west fault lines in NZ are in Marlborough and N Canterbury. All factors should come together for a moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth and targeting NZ. The time will be just before noon. It could be another for the history books.

Should we take Ring seriously. One word answer: No. For more words, look here and here, where someone actually debates Ring over his claim that he predicted the events of September 4th4. There’s no real point my replicating their work here, especially as if you read the “Silly Belief” comments thread, you get the pleasure of seeing Ring try to dodge and eventually debate his opponents.

Next time: The conclusion, probably.

Notes

  1. One webage, Astrology Notes on Earthquakes: Increased seismic risk with Saturn and Uranus in opposition , whilst talking about the link between the stars and earthquakes, has the line “Using my astro-seismic formula…” Comedy gold.
  2. Which claims that vast amounts of energy, which originate from imperceivable dimensions, are to be found at latitudes 19.5° both sides of the equator on every solar body in our solar system.
  3. I.e. This suggests Ring does think there is some conspiracy, by the establishment, to keep astrologers like himself on the outside of the debate.
  4. This post, from the people at “Silly Beliefs” is informative for just how, well, clueless, Ring is.

71 thoughts on “The Christchurch Quake Conspiracy (plural) – Part Six – Astrology

  1. there are so many people out here that are now scared to death of the bloody earthquakes we dont need someone now telling us that another is cameing . maybe ken should live here and see what it likes frist hand it’s bloody hard i can tell you .ken says he has predicted earthquakes but thats after they have happened how can he then says he was right ?.

  2. Hay dude any chance you could give me a number on the ricter scale of the prediction sorry dnt no if you said it up there dnt hav time to read it bro cld u email me it plz cheers

  3. Wow you guys are morons. Get over it. I also live in Christchurch and as bad and scary as it was…. it wasnt actually that bad or scary ha. If anything, me and my mates often look forward to the big aftershocks that occur every now and then. If it happens, it happens. Its nature at work and as with many things in life, sometimes nature can’t be controlled or stopped. Accept the possibility. Also, these earthquakes are actually making Christchurch more of a tourist attraction. Its extremely funny to go driving through the City center and watching wide-eyed tourists snapping photos of wrecked buildings **laughs**. Never gets old ;). I personally think no one should worry.

    • I seem to be getting comments on this post that suggest I’m advocating that Ken Ring is right, or that Ken Ring has said something super informative. Just to reiterate; I’m debunking Ring and his claim that he was able to predict and explain the earthquake.

    • You will find all the information you need in the post and the links from the post. I didn’t bother answering you because you admitted you hadn’t had time to read the post before asking your question.

  4. well well well looks like KR was SPOT ON?

    It means ths area of the sun that corresponds to NZ is again seeing some activation. The window of 15-25 February should be potent for all types of tidal action, not only kingtides but cyclone development and ground movement. The 18th may be especially prone. The possible earthquake risk areas are N/S faults until after 16 February, then E/W faults until 23rd. The moon will be full on the 18th and in perigee on the 19th. This perigee will be the fifth closest for the year. The 15th will be nodal for the moon. On the 20th the moon crosses the equator heading south. Strong winds and swells may arrive around 22nd to NZ shorelines

    • Ken’s prediction for the big quake (after the quake of last year) was for the morning of 20 March 2011 which he claimed would see the South island at its biggest earthquake.

    • Also, that quote (you haven’t given the context) seems to apply to all of New Zealand, so even if Ring can be said to have predicted an earthquake he’s merely predicted an earthquake of any scale somewhere in the country. Given how geologically active Aotearoa/Te Wai Pounamu (New Zealand) is, it’s not much of a prediction; at this stage, given the lack of scientific support for Ring’s theory of the weather, this looks like a lucky guess.

  5. “These are opinions and not predictions” — Ken Ring, 14th Feb, 2011.

    http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home

    Seems like you’re more than happy to make him out to be somewhat more lunatic and dogmatic than his actual stated position. There is increasing scientific evidence that links ionospheric anomalies with earthquakes, but as this has only been studied in the past 15 years, there is still very little public awareness and understanding.

    • Hold on. So, if they’re just opinions and not predictions, then Ring can’t be congratulated for predicting anything. He just expressed an opinion that happened to be true. But I suspect you don’t want to accept that chain of reasoning because you want this particular opinion to be treated as a prediction, and a successful one at that.

      (The important part here is that if Ring is predicting things, then he has a method for that prediction and thus the method can be tested and his data looked at for successful predictions. If Ring is just expressing opinions, then he doesn’t have to have a method, he just has to produce some data and hope that some of it pans out/turns out to be the case. If you want Ring’s claim that today was a good day for earthquakes, then you need to point not just at his claim but how he arrived at that claim, and that doesn’t just means testing his predictions against the dataset but also looking at how he came to that claim in the first place. Frankly, I think Ring equivocates on “prediction” because he doesn’t want to be held to any particular claim in the likely event he is incorrect.)

      You can’t have it both ways. If Ring doesn’t make predictions and just gives opinions, then his opinions are just that; opinions. If you want Ring’s opinions to be treated as predictions (as it seems you do here), then you have to accept that Ring’s “opinions” are both vague and, even though vague, more often wrong than not. There’s quite a study of his “opinions” being tested against the meteorological data in Aotearoa/Te Wai Pounamu and being found wanting.

      Also, it’s interesting that you say there’s “increasing scientific evidence that links ionospheric anomalies with earthquakes;” I know some seismologists and they’ve not seen or read anything in their field that shows a link between the Moon and earthquakes. Where are these studies being published? Is the data being replicated elsewhere?

  6. Your argument seems to be: because a krank or kook talks about an idea (in this case, the relations of electromagnetic activity in the ionosphere, gravitational relationships between terrestrial bodies, solar physics and earthquakes) then we should dismiss that idea outright.

    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1286..270S
    http://www.esa.int/export/esaEO/SEMUPAWLDMD_index_0.html
    http://www.ss.ncu.edu.tw/~jyliu/paper/2002037.pdf
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/11/031103070548.htm

    and so forth…

    It seems that what is referred to in popular parlance as “space weather” could be a significant tool in predicting earthquakes.

    Note that none of these studies pertain to the movement of the moon or a relationship between the moon and earthquakes. But Ring also mentions solar activity and sunspots, and it’s obvious that there is a direct link between solar radiation and the electromagnetic earth field. It’s also clear that a number It difficult to study and a very complex system, much more complex than 19th and early 20th century views would have admitted.

    One might say that it is foolish of Ring to make such pronouncements, given this lack of clear scientific understanding – but what is the alternative? To demand that we only pay attention to the work of specialists who do not connect “isolated” events in the earths crust to their place to a place in a much larger electromagnetic and geophysical system? How can progress in science happen, if we treat the work of established science as fact and not pursue new explanations. Just because there’s nothing in the field of seismology, does not mean that other geophysicists are not exploring different areas and discovering new things.

    While Ring may be tossing out vague opinions, the topics he speaks about are not irrelevant. He is of course, being careful to cover his ass, should things not turn out, but he did state that due to a particular pattern of solar activity and the position of the moon, there was a likelihood of a focused earthquake over this particular time period. And a major earthquake did happen. Whether that was luck or not, his opinion was in this case fairly accurate.

    • Only one of the articles you offered questions whether there is a link between earthquakes and the Moon; the others are about how ionospheric activity and earthquakes might be connected. I’m not denying a link between ionospheric activity and earthquakes (the question is whether it’s causative and in what direction); I’m saying that Ring’s system, which he’s described in some depth and is about lunar cycles, is not the explanation for his “opinion.”

      It isn’t sufficient to say “Ring talks about x” and “These scientists talk about x,” thus “Ring and the scientists are talking about the same thing.” To show that one isn’t piggybacking on the other (i.e. Ring using scientific jargon to mask his astrology) you need to show not just that they share key concepts but that they also use the same method for reaching their conclusions. This is where Ring falls down; he uses a method that, as our American friends would say, is pure woo.

  7. Kia Ora,
    Don’t think Matt from above will be laughing now. Was just having a look at site as heard from a friend about the predictions for 20 March 2011. Do you think there will be another big one on the next full moon, or did it come earlier than predicted/estimated (whatever term you want to use)????

    • If Ring’s system is correct, this isn’t an early manifestation of the 20th of March quake; he’s described in detail what he thinks causes these earthquakes so that prediction… sorry, opinion… is still to be tested.

      Which raises the question; what if there isn’t a major quake on the 20th of March? What will his supporters say then?

  8. There are so called experts in all areas who offer predictions that everyone is more than happy to accept as gospel. Anyone’s prediction on a complex system is really just an opinion. I dont see that as such a big deal. Billions of dollars have been pumped into the financial system based on opinion. Millions are spent on attempts to predict financial markets, we all feel the affects of this on a daily basis and (remarkably) there is little complaint about these “experts”.

    Working with complex systems which supposedly have all factors within your control (IT systems) you see that even in these conditions you cant work in absolutes, cant predict exact outcomes, but instead you must manage risk.

    Nothing is black and white. Any observed tendency which helps “predict” an event may be helpful…. if those predictions end up being uncannily coincidental with actual events you have to question whether they may have some scientific basis or not.

    Every opinion should be questioned period. Including yours and mine. Assess a hypotheses through observation. That is the scientific method.

    Ken maybe a nut job. But you have to wonder about hypotheses which end up being somewhat supported by observation.

    You may also like to see http://www.nextearthquake.com/ … “22 Feb major event Southern NZ” … uncanny. This is based on statistical analysis and given some of the wording seems to hint at being also related to lunar movements (the site doesnt state this but there are mention of lunar cycles). Ex senior CSIRO scientist making predictions… he doesnt even use the word opinion… are you going to slam him too?

    From a common sense perspective, the moon and the weather are some of the largets forces on the planet. It seems sensible to me to be open to the idea that weather patterns, ocean currents, sub terrestrial movements and lunar movements may be interrelated. Perhaps not directly related but certainly influencing and interacting factors.

    While not a direct cause, influencing factors in any event can change the odds. Minimise their impact and you improve your chance of managing the outcome. Travelling at 120k may not cause an accident but it does dramatically increase your risk of serious injury. We accept that “prediction” quite happily.

    Personally, I cant help but think that if Kens theories were total nonsense then the odds of what he predicted (http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home) being correct would have to be beyond ridiculously impossible.

    Yet it happened.

    Even the most hardened sceptic would have to wonder if there is _something_ in the events he uses as the basis for his predictions.

    Solar flares and gravity from the moon arent astrology. Thats physics.

    If we dismissed hypotheses based on observation in favour of “fashionable thought of the time” we would still be falling off the edge of our “flat planet”.

    Plenty of history’s most acclaimed scientists (and leaders) have made plenty of dumb statements and done plenty of very dumb things. Doesnt change the fact that they were over time shown to be onto something.

    • Three things:

      1. You are equivocating on what an opinion is, and not very convincingly. You are conflating an opinion with “being aware of the risks,” predictions and with bog-standard opinions.

      2. You say:

      Personally, I cant help but think that if Kens theories were total nonsense then the odds of what he predicted (http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home) being correct would have to be beyond ridiculously impossible.

      If Ken had only made one prediction based upon his system and it turned out to be right, then that would be remarkable. However, Ken offers lots of “opinions” and most of them, when tested against the data, fail. We can’t ignore that mass of data; Ken’s “opinion” is consistent with it being a lucky guess.

      (Also, what Ken predicted was a quake ten times more powerful than this one; that’s a massive difference. There are only about 12 7-point quakes a year, vs. around 180 6-point quakes. Ken was predicting a much more unique and powerful quake than the one you are claiming he successfully foretold.)

      3. As for Dr. Robert’s predictions; as you say, he doesn’t mention lunar cycles as being part of his predictive method (and he states quite clearly that he isn’t going to reveal his methodology at this time). You can’t infer that his system is like Ring’s just because both of them mention lunar cycles.

      Because Robert’s has not revealed his methodology, unlike Ring, it’s hard to know what to make of it. Ring puts forward a mechanism for explaining the weather and seismic activity which can be tested. People do test it and it does not pass muster (it looks more successful than it is because Ring’s “opinions” are worded, like most astrological information, in a way to look specific when actually what he is making are vague claims and because he falls back on the “It wasn’t a prediction!” line to excuse his many failures).

  9. Well here is my point on the latest quake to hit christchurch I was out gathering Paua yesterday 21st of march and I said to my m8 these king tides you know are a rarity i ain’t seen a 3.9 tide in over 18 years 199t3 to be exact and i said there will be a mass earthquake within the next 24 hours in NZ that will make the september one look like a baby and lo and behold look what has happened OMG im in total shock as of to predicted it within 24 hours still my hearts and prayers go out to the people and their loved ones there who have lost loved ones and been injured by the devastating event God bless you all

  10. Matthew..what is your problem? You seem to be trying to find your answers through mental muddling and semantics rather than accepting that answers can and do come from many aspects and angles that others use. Extend your range of possibilities and apologise to Mr Ring, who you have given such a hard rap and go through life with gentleness and tolerance to others and the belief in miracles!

  11. I am not a scientist or some one overly smart but I can relate to things being said. When “predicting” a “likely” event thats exactly what it is, a “likely” event. The things people are not putting into consideration like strength of the techtonic(spelling?) plates or the rock around the fault lines. So when a “prediction” comes along its a likelihood of an event occuring but of course there can be other factors that might prevent it from happening like the 2 examples i’ve just given.

  12. Many brilliant philosophers have studied life to such a degree that they can only call it quantum physics…’What the bleep do I know’

  13. quantum physics is in this debate now?! Oh well, when all opinions are equal I suppose you don’t need to know much. Or, you can get your knowldege from the web which is even better.

  14. Guess what guys, february 22nd 2011 1:51pm 6.3M 5km deep earthquake hit christchurch, 65 dead 300 missing city totslly destroyed

  15. So you still think he’s mad do you!!!!
    iT is well known that the body has 90% water. That the menstrual period of a woman is on the Luna month. That the sea tides are ruled by the moon. If you study Astrology you will learn that last year was a bad year for most personally. If you go to Kaballah you will also learn about how the Planets affected the History of the Bible and the world. Open your minds and stop been ignorant. Anything is possible under the sun.

  16. If you don’t believe in Astrology, you can’t be a believer of the Bible. Weren’t the three Kings of Chadea following a star and predicted a new babe was born.
    Come on guys get real. Have faith in the seen and unseen. Some people just know!! My mum could sense earthquakes before they hit and would start screaming. I don’t know which was more frightening her screams or the earthquake.
    There is knowledge that has been considered as old wifes tales. Study the animals they know about the weather an earthquakes. Did you know you can predict the weather by the size of a spiders web! Ah a forgotten knowledge

  17. Curiously, I was comparing recent earthquake times with full moons to see how “accurate” Ken Ring has actually been when the 22 Feb earthquake struck. And as part of my Web surf I hit on http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm which listed “New Zealand Southern Region, New Zone within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island” as “M4.3-M6.3 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (revised 0210 hours 19th Feb)”. Now the 500km radius around Ch’ch and a range of 4.3-6.3 is fairly broad, but they got a close correlation to the 6.3 that hit Ch’ch on 22 Feb. I’m no advocate of Ring (and I haven’t yet done an analysis of major quake dates against full moons, but it can’t be that hard)…

    • The Dr. Robert’s website is interesting; he isn’t releasing his methodology at this stage and the claims are a bit vague (the difference in magnitude between a 4.3 and a 6.3 is massive; a 5.3 is ten times more powerful than a 4.3 and a 6.3 is ten times more powerful than a 5.3, so a 6.3 is 100 times more powerful than a 4.3; that’s a big range of magnitude just glossed over in his prediction) but without the methodology it’s a little hard to work out what is going on with his predictions, and I haven’t had a chance (yet) to look into whether his other claims have borne fruit.

  18. PS What the Hells this all about Conspiracy??? Floods and Earthquakes happen. And Mother Nature is telling us something. Not God as I heard on TV. Stop blaming him; he has nothing to do with what’s going on with the World today! Though it does say “never build your house on sand.”
    There is an old American Indian saying “What you take out of the Earth you should give back and Mother Nature will look after you.” We take Thermal steam; oil; coal; water; minerals but what do we give back to the earth to refill that void? My Grandfather always said “What goes up, must come down.” Make sense. With the erupting Volcanos; Floods; tsunamis and the many Earthquakes of late. I believe the world has moved from its axis. And the planets are bound to have gravity as the Earth has which pull in directions of one another. Just thank Modern Law that we don’t get burnt at the stake Eh!

  19. I believe its gona hapn so dont take any chances and get the fuck out of there! Your all gonna be sorry if it does. Your making preditions yourself saying that it wont hapn, and that he’s al shit, but what if it does actually hapn on the day that he says it will and the time or even around then, youll all look stupd. Plus it will hapn again and again until foreva no one knows how the earth works f they did then we will all know 4 sure when any thing will hapn. Might as well take it into cosideration! Youve got heaps to loose if your all wrong arseholes!!! Go hard ken ring your the man!!

  20. I am not sure how I feel about these predictions. I believe in Astrology, premonitions, a 6th sense and spirits. I am hoping Ken has it wrong….but I feel not. If this latest earthquake is a fraction of what is to come, people need to be prepared. If you believe that Ken is a crank……what a small price to pay by being prepared, having a survival kit, a plan. You can always use the supplies later on. Christchurch had a warning Sept 4th,Boxing Day and now Tuesday 22nd. I live in Avonhead, I have water,power and my home has had minor damage that can be repaired. Is the cost of life so small that you wouldn’t listen to a “prediction”? We have time to make changes…you have been warned.

  21. Well you didnt respond to this comment on the post where you made the statement and you havent retracted your post so Im going to chuck it here.

    1. Re part 9

    “Not only that but the frequency of a 7-point quake is about 12 a year compared to the 180 6-point quakes we normally expect.”

    That is blatantly misleading, those figures are for the whole planet.

    In the New Zealand region (according to Geo Net) a 6.x event is on average around 2 a year and a 7+ event around 1 every 3 years.

    http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/earthquake-facts-and-statistics.html

    If you dont revise your post or add a comment then you will be guilty of spinning facts to suit your position … something you quite rightly diss about those you critique.

    2 – Re Dr Roberts

    Im with you on Dr Roberts … 4.3 to 6.3 IS a massive range and to me does raise the question of the relevance of his predictions given the frequency of quakes in that lower range…. but Im no siesmologist or statistician. As an aside, the older I get the more uncertainly becomes relevant and absolutes become irrelevant. I really wish Id focussed on stats a lot more instead of numpty stuff like calculus which is so exact it really doesnt map to the real world at all. Frustrated me abouth physicis and chemistry… most things are generalisations within some margin of error. Have a chat to a theoretical particle physicist about the properties of light, my head really didnt cope well with that at all.

    3 – Re Ring

    I was looking for Dr Roberts as I had been shown his site at work. While searching at home I stumbled on your blog which lead me to Ring so no Im no Ring supporter. Predicting the weather down to the day based on the moon does seem nonsense. So many factors influence day to day weather … including your own location… I live on a hill with 200 degree views … on a daily basis you can see the variation. On the other hand, suggesting the moon is an influence on the weather or earthquakes does not seem looney at all.

    For any idea to get any traction the sell of that idea is just as important if not more so than the idea itself. Not suprising then that people are remembered in history as much as their idea. You need to stand up and make some noise… as you do. Assange understands that, although for a smart guy he seems to lack some pretty basic knowledge about people given his Swedish issues?

    4. History and astrology

    It is a shame that modern science has so often thrown away knowledge humans have obtained through _observation_ throughout history. History was once held in very high regard but not so much since the later part of the 20th century. Now newer is automatically considered better. It is a shame that religion and other “mystic” knowledge is dismissed in its entirety when it has a lot to tell us… either about what was observed at the time or what it tells us about the people themselves. The bible might be religious and full of superstition but that doesnt change that it is an incredibly important historical document with a hell of a lot of information about humanity. Personally I prefer the word culture to religion… its less loaded. Astrology is something I dont know much about but looks interesting… such a long history it wouldnt be suprising at all to find some gold nuggets of observation. Culture, human behaviour for a reason. We all are able to observe.

    4. In Rebuttal

    I wasnt inferring Dr Roberts and Ring have the same method. Ring states the foundation of his theory is movement of the moon (apogee, perigee etc). It seems interesting that Dr Roberts titles his Long Term predictions as “Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes
    for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of the Lunar Month Ahead”. Doesnt seem rocket science to infer that an influencing factor he is taking into account is the moon (and a significant factor at that). Given this, it seemed on the surface you were quite dismissive of Ring.

    Maxmillion made essentially the same points, although probably a bit better. A person’s theory shouldnt be dismissed just because they themselves come across as a bit weird. If we did that I dont think many high IQ types would get much traction at all do you?

    My point about risk was that even in a complex system where (in theory) you have full control of all variables you still can not be certain of the outcome. So you quantify the risks and manage them to reduce your uncertainty and improve the outcome. You assume they are all contributng factors with some level of influence and do what you can to mitigate them.

    The first step of course is to be open to them being an influence.

    Everything has a level of uncertainty and many things can influence an outcome, that was my point.

    Obviously you cant expect anyone to forecast anything exactly. All anyone does is offer an opinion and a basis for that opinion.

    While not very scientific there really is a lot to be said for “you know, the vibe of it, your honour”.

    Not the forum I guess but one has to say … all the best for the people of Chch. Our thoughts are with you.

  22. um matt are yoyu still laughing now.christchurch has now been hit…becareful what you say,you could very well be one of the still buried..i wonder?

  23. I live in Invercargill and will be prepared for any earthquakes that should/would happen – also would like to say my home is open to anyone that would like to come here and be safe in my home town get out of there while you can please consider Invercargill as a safe place to be

  24. i was thinking could the Earthquake he predicted next month be the one that has just happend in Chch i mean hes predicting the one next month to be on the 19th or 20th of March on a full moon well the one we just had was on the 22nd of February so two days after the 20th which was a Sunday like it will be next month as well. It also was a full moon it states above “the only east/west fault lines in NZ are in Marlborough and N Canterbury. All factors should come together for a moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth and targeting NZ. The time will be just before noon. It could be another for the history books” Well this recent earthquake is for the history books and it was hit around noon? maby he got it wrong and this recent earthquake was the one hes talking about? i dont know i could be wrong it just scares me NZ has had enough disaster at the moment 🙁

  25. I live in cromwell and i’m gettin outa here between the dates ken says 12-28th theres lake hawea above and wanaka and then dunstan all on the fault line. buggar that. earhquake then wipeout following.

  26. Matt: wrote this… now after this HUGE F*#KING EARTHQUAKE IN CHRISTCHURCH I BET YOU AREN’T LOVING THE AFTERSHOCKS, OR BEING SUCH A PRICK ABOUT IT… you are a pig matt and you should eat these terrible shallow words you ignorantly typed!!!!
    16 February, 2011 at 2:37 pm
    Wow you guys are morons. Get over it. I also live in Christchurch and as bad and scary as it was…. it wasnt actually that bad or scary ha. If anything, me and my mates often look forward to the big aftershocks that occur every now and then. If it happens, it happens. Its nature at work and as with many things in life, sometimes nature can’t be controlled or stopped. Accept the possibility. Also, these earthquakes are actually making Christchurch more of a tourist attraction. Its extremely funny to go driving through the City center and watching wide-eyed tourists snapping photos of wrecked buildings **laughs**. Never gets old . I personally think no one should worry.

  27. It cracks me up on how all of you atheist-like people are just labelling ken as crazy and all crap, and are afraid to even take this type of thing seriously, i live in auckland and i am still not going to doubt these theories as it is too big of price to just ignore, just remember, u may think Ken may be all crap, or maybe your just too afraid to accept the fact he could be right, either way everyone in the canterbury area should take this into consideration and prepare to expect another earthquake in march bigger than the last 2. just remember, your gambling with your life here, and this goes for EVERYONE in the canterbury area, you are gambling the ultimate price here so stop being so scared to take his “opinions” seriously and get prepared or get away from the area, otherwise, if you dont value your life, by all means, stay right where you are then

  28. I was wondering the same thing as Kayla. Possibly Ken was on the money with his predications, but a month out? Surely we can’t get any more than what we have experienced? Please no!! I live in Oxford and the east/west fault is situated out here and runs through Arthurs Pass. I think its because of fear, ignorance and uncertainty that keep these ‘urban myths’ circulating. In this case….I take an agnostic position just in case. Is this how religion has lasted so long on our planet too?

  29. HOW BIG DO YOU THINK THE EARTHQUAKE WILL BE ON 20 MARCH IF IT HAPPENS? WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A TSUNAMI HAPPENING BECAUSE OF IT?
    NOW THERE IS TALK OF 19 APRIL AS WELL?

  30. Another gentleman living in a far off land by the name of Amit Dave, has also predicted an earthquake of 7.5 on the 20th March. He does not say where but he also works on the theory of the moon and the planets. One can only wait and see.

  31. why have not the tens of astrologists in
    nz not backed his crap up He needs to stop this scare mongery bullshit leave us cants alone the tosser

  32. matthew.. have you been on 95bFM breakfast? is that your real voice? you sound like someone from auckland theatre company i.e. simon prast..

    if you are the person im thinking of – are you for real and is someone funding you? your phd seems of dubious value.. when you study so-called “conspiracy theories” (you’re obviously a debunker) do you look at the evidence presented by the so called conspiracy theorist’s or would that be a bit too inconvenient so best to stay clear of all that evidence and attempt to divert the attention away from the inconvenient evidence with patronizing epistemology nonsense.. or do you just do what david rockefeller & george soros tell you to do? if you’ve actually researched any evidence you will see that its all hidden in plain view.. in fact you can read it in the conspirators own documents.. have a look at rockefeller foundation documents and/or club of rome global 2000 report.. they only admit conspiracy

    apologies if i have the wrong guy.. otherwise say hi to dave & george for us.. tell them we all know exactly what theyre up to and the georgia guidestones & denver airport mural are really special..

    and just for the record – all conspiracy theories – that challenge the official establishment approved & sanitized version of events are all nonsense yeah? if so good luck with that

    • I am the guy on 95bFM. I have a weird voice/accent because I have a rather significant speech hesitancy and thus have had a lot of vocal training to get me to this level of fluent speech.

      As for your other claims; I don’t think official theories necessarily trump conspiracy theories and I don’t think that official theories can’t be conspiracy theories. So, no, I don’t have a credulous belief in all “official establishment approved & sanitized versions of events.” Perhaps you should read my blog before making claims about what I believe/research?

  33. i think that everyone should give ken ring a chance to explain his veiws and beliefs on this topic, if you think bout it weren’t all the “pioneer”s (if you will) of the science world were all laughed at and told were wrong,everyone thought that they were all crazy old men, until it was proven otherwise? how is the science world ment to move forward with their discoveries if no one is willing to study into the theories people like ken ring bring to the table?? and why has everyone stopped beleiveing that we live on a planet that will keep moving and changing? have we all forgotten who the earth came to be? even if ken is wrong wouldnt it be better to be prepared then go into it and be left with nothing?

  34. Ken Ring has been pretty accurate in all fairness. We must remember, he is not “predicting” earthquakes, he is only “suggesting” the period of time that we can most likely expect these sorts events to occur. If we take a look at what he his studying in order to make these extimates, he is quite right. Take a look at history and when the major events have occurred. It is written in black and white. I too study a little geology and volcanology and it does make sense. I feel that people should pay more attention to what Ken says and look into how he makes these estimates. You will see it is not that hard to follow and it all does makes sense. Who knows, you may even save your own life by being prepared around these times. I am quite fixed on and believe N.Z is going to have another significant event around either the 6th of March or the 20th. These are the next times the moon passes close to the earth. Lets wait and see.

  35. Yawn… It’s quite simple… if there is a big earthquake on or around the 20th of march, you may want to revise your comments. If nothing happens, then Ken Rings prediction (or opinion) will be nothing more than that.

  36. No Ken Ring is not mad.I for one believe him.He did correctly predict the Christchurch earthquake of the 22nd of February.Anybody who thinks he is mad are probably mad themselves.

  37. The Chinese have been using clouds, the moon, and the sun in earthquake predictions for thousands of years and getting it right so why not Ken. Maybe people should go and have a look at what the Chinese have predicted by looking on the W.W.W. it is so full of knowledge. Ken is not the only one predicting an earthquake on the 20th March, but he does not know where. The web is a powerful tool. The information highway created by the Swiss is there for all to use. The information gained is usually free, well apart from the fee paid for the connection, but there is so much to see. Still it is a peoples choice if they believe in anyones prediction, some do not believe in God, but some at least give you a good laugh, at 72 years old, like the old saying ” you don’t stop laughing because you grow old, you grow old because you stopped laughing”. Do we pray to God and trust in Ken or do we pray to Ken that he is wrong and trust in God to make a right decision. Time will tell.

  38. If Ken is right I am prepared for a earthquake, and if the earth quake kills me then it kills me I am not scared about dying at a young age we either die young or old. We can’t choose when to die and if we are meant to die unexpectedly in a earthquake then stand there and take it, it is what life throws at you.

  39. Ok well please let us know where is the safest please to be in South Island? Will it e the Alpine faultline this time or us again in Christchurch? We are all so worried and quite frankly scared out of our wits.

  40. how big will the next earthquake be in chch were do you think it will be seader can you email me please asap

  41. Matt – you are very close-minded, and like many who dispute Ken Ring’s ideas on prediction, YOU HAVE NOT BEEN DOING YOUR HOMEWORK!!! Have you even bothered to ever check out his website and read any of his articles since Sept. 4th???

    I have his World 2011 calendar for Earthquake Schedules printed off on my home office wall (which displays month/date/magnitude size/Moon position/fault directions and tide hits). Looking at this for this year and also his comments on whale strandings over last year since 4th Sept., practically every ‘period’ of 2-5 days that he predicted earthquake movements have been realised. I have a co-worker who has also witnessed his incredible accuracy, and we have a copy of this calandar at work. As an example,I heard before 3 March that rumours were going around that there may be a smaller (though noticable) event on 12 March, so I looked on his calendar and he has that date noted for a quake somewhere in the world to strike at a near 6+ magnitude. My photographic memory later in the week remembered that there were only two dates before this on the calendar and so while at work on Saturday with same colleague, I rushed to grab it to check and the 5th and 6th were both noted to have near 5+ magnitude quakes: Chch had a sizeable aftershock at 7:34pm on Sat. 5th and there was another sizable one on the 6th, both in the high 4’s. As other bloggers who support him mention, there is a lot of study involved and calculations required to measure earth/moon distances. I personally believe it’s just the cycle of the universe and it’s just NZ’s ‘turn’ for these successive events because of the orbital positions during this last year. It cannot last forever and will move on to some other place in time. Believe it or not Ken Ring actually could see that the 4th Sept. quake may occur where it did because he consulted the activity of the seismic drums around NZ that were activated stronger than usual in the days leading up to it and he could see the movement traveling North from the bottom of the Sth Island…So while not all seismologists agree in his moon theory, at least he respects their work enough to factor this into the equation. For this fact, I have a lot of respect for Ken Ring because he has been willing to put his reputation on the line for the sake of sharing his knowledge and making people “aware” – not ‘scaring’ them – that’s a natural reaction for some people though this is not his intention for us to react that way. Personally Matt, I think you are just a sceptic who thrives on an argumentative approache to communication and like yourself too much or you wouldn’t be blogging on this website night and day to get attention. Stay safe, or the next thing you’ll be eating may not be just your own words (but dirt)! Give Ken Ring a chance, as many have (though of course, we all know John Campbell did not)! What’s wrong with saving water/preparing in other ways. If time passes and nothing happens, it’s no ones loss.

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